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Managerial Performance and Contract Instability in the Market for National Football Coaches

By Dr Lynne Nikolychuk and Brian Sturgess

In this paper, an investigation is made of the relationship between managerial performance of national football coaches and their length of contract term to consider the extent that relatively higher turnover may have affected team performance outcomes. The contract periods of coaches from the top twenty national teams during a thirteen year period from 1993 to 2006 are examined alongside their respective FIFA performance rankings. The authors evaluate these findings in comparison with some of the main theoretical viewpoints traditionally relied upon to assess this phenomenon. The findings indicate that relatively higher coach turnover rates consistently prevail in those countries where the variability in team performance (as measured by the standard deviation of FIFA rankings) is highest. In other words, sufficient evidence exists to reasonably conclude that frequency of managerial succession, in this case, national team coaches, is positively related to the variability of team performance over time. The results also suggest that broadening both theoretical and methodological approaches is needed to assess more adequately the complexity of these activities.

 

Working the International Circuit: Job Instability among National Team Coaches

By Brian Sturgess and Dr Lynne Nikolychuk

 

 

 

Hosting the FIFA World Cup: Economic Boon or Winners Curse?

By Brian Sturgess & Chris Brady

Countries often compete fiercely for the right to host the football FIFA World Cup finals which take place every four years. The present UK Government has already made a policy statement that it would strongly support a bid made by the Football Association for England to bid for the finals due to be held in 2018. Apart from the obvious boost to national prestige are there any concrete economic benefits to be gained from hosting so-called mega sporting events in a country such as the Olympics or the World Cup? The evidence is mixed. Some economists have compared the projected benefits estimated by the promoters or supporters of hosting events before an event takes place with estimates of the actual outcome using national income statistics. In most cases these studies conclude that the net economic impact arising from a boost to aggregate demand from hosting major sporting events is often negligible and in some cases even negative casting doubt on the ultimate worth of the resources spent in bidding and hosting the tournament if a bid is successful. Is winning the right to host the World Cup of dubious economic value? This paper surveys a range of studies which have assessed the macroeconomic impact of hosting the finals and attention is focused on four tournaments in particular: the USA 1994, France 1998, Japan and Korea 2002 and Germany 2006. The paper argues that it is inappropriate to rely only on measures of the economic impact of hosting a sporting event that are concerned only with the effect on macroeconomic variables to make a cost and benefits analysis of whether a bid should be made or not. Not only are there statistical and methodological problems in doing so, but such studies miss the point that hosting events can have major effects on the structures of the football market and other related industries. Evidence of such structural changes is presented in relation to past World Cup tournaments and it is suggested that their scale and longevity can be significant.

 

 

 

FIFA 2018: To Bid or not to Bid

By Brian Sturgess and Professor Chris Brady